Cost Forecasting for Building Materials under Conditions of Uncertainty: Methodology and Practice

Most large construction projects face the problem of cost overruns and failures to meet deadlines mainly due changes in building materials. A lot studies proved high importance materials for project budget highlighted a number factors that determine However, modern unstable economic dynamics lead need not only observe sufficient accuracy quantity calculations regarding primary but also carefully predict cost, taking into account uncertainty (changes geopolitical situation, impact pandemic, technological structure, etc.). This article proposes use calculation expert methodology forecasting on example bars two regions Russian Federation. study includes review literature, which showed dependence prices materials, confirmed noneconomic risk uncertainty. Based literature review, it is concluded necessary expertly adjust results mathematical modeling materials’ price trend line under influence The statistics Russia were analyzed, main causes (economic noneconomic) identified. ARIMA model was selected build series reinforcement steel, an adjustment forecast made factors. method proposed, steel calculated its basis. In conclusion, this demonstrates algorithm practical conditions uncertainty, as well recommendations implementation predictive analytics tools practice.